Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Stocks struggled the early portion of the week but showed some rebounding Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Existing home sales were 6M as expected. The 2-year Treasury note auction was weaker than average. Weekly jobless claims were 870K vs the expected 825K. New home sales were 1.011M vs the expected 875K. Durable goods orders rose 0.4% vs the expected 1.5% increase. The Fed continued their mortgage-backed securities buying with billions of dollars of purchases daily which kept most of the changes within narrow ranges. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/4 to 3/8 of a discount point.


Economic IndicatorRelease Date & TimeConsensus EstimateAnalysis
Consumer ConfidenceTuesday, Sept. 29,
10:00 am, et
88Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP EmploymentWednesday, Sept. 30,
8:30 am, et
650KImportant. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Q2 GDPWednesday, Sept. 30,
8:30 am, et
Down 31.7%Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and OutlaysThursday, Oct. 1,
8:30 am, et
Down 2.3%,
Up 0.7%
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core InflationThursday, Oct. 1,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.3%Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Weekly Jobless ClaimsThursday, Oct. 1,
8:30 am, et
800KImportant. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
EmploymentFriday, Oct. 2,
8:30 am, et
Payrolls +860K
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Factory OrdersFriday, Oct. 2,
10:00 am, et
Up 1.3%Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer SentimentFriday, Oct. 2,
10:00 am, et
79Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE price index. The report provides the average increase in costs for personal consumption expenditures. PCE is significant in that the Fed uses it in determining inflation as opposed to the prior use of the consumer price index. The PCE includes the price of spending for and on behalf of households. This includes health care spending paid for a household by a business. The CPI only reflects out of pocket expenses paid directly by consumers. The Fed continues to state that inflation is in check. However, data can surprise the financial markets from time to time. Mortgage interest rates will likely spike higher in the short term if the PCE core reading is higher than expected. A reading in line with expectations will likely help rates stay in check.