CoreLogic: US Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rate Remains Near Record Low in September

• The national mortgage delinquency rate was 2.8% in September, unchanged year over year but still similar to numbers recorded over the previous 18 months.
• September marked the first month in more than two years that the overall U.S. mortgage delinquency rate did not decline on an annual basis.
• Overall delinquency rates increased from September 2022 in 15 states, with South Dakota, Hawaii and Idaho showing the largest increases.
• The impact of the August 2023 Maui wildfire was evident in the increase in delinquency rates in the Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina metro area.
• The U.S. foreclosure rate continued to hold near an all-time low of 0.3% in September.

CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for September 2023.

In September 2023, 2.8% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), unchanged from September 2022 and a 0.2 percentage point increase from August 2023.

To gain a complete view of the mortgage market and loan performance health, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency. In September 2023, the U.S. delinquency and transition rates and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:

• Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.5%, up from 1.2% in September 2022.
• Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, unchanged from September
• 2022.
• Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 0.9%, down from 1.2% in September 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
• Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from September 2022.
• Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.8%, up from 0.6% in September 2022.

An overwhelming majority of homeowners with a mortgage were able to make their payments on time in September, in line with data recorded since the spring of 2022. Fifteen states saw annual upticks in overall delinquency rates, with increases ranging from 0.5% to 0.1% in each of those states. Mortgage performance remains on solid ground in part thanks to a still-healthy job market, although it is worth noting that the U.S. unemployment rate inched up to its highest level since January 2022 in October.

September delinquency rates are also reminders of the impact that natural disasters have on mortgage performance. One month following the hurricane-fueled wildfires in Hawaii, delinquency rates increased in the Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina metro. Similarly, delinquency rates are still elevated in Punta Gorda, Florida and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida a full year after Hurricane Ian hit those areas.

“The overall U.S. delinquency rate was unchanged from one year ago in September and remains near an all-time low,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic. “While there was a decrease in the share of mortgages six months or more past due, there was a compensating increase in early-stage delinquencies. If the labor market weakens in the coming months, expect further increases in mortgage delinquencies.”

State and Metro Takeaways:

• Fifteen states saw overall mortgage delinquency rates increase year over year in September. The states with the largest upticks were South Dakota (up by 0.5 percentage points), Hawaii (up by 0.4 percentage points) and Idaho (up by 0.3 percentage points). Seventeen states showed no change in overall delinquency rates year over year. The remaining states’ annual delinquency rates declined between -0.3 percentage points and -0.1 percentage points.
• In September, 141 U.S. metro areas posted increases in overall year-over-year delinquency rates. The metros with the largest increases were Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, Hawaii (up by 3.5 percentage points); Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana and Erie, Pennsylvania (both up by 0.8 percentage points).
• In September, three U.S. metro areas posted an annual increase in serious delinquency rates (defined as 90 days or more late on a mortgage payment), while 14 metros recorded no change. Declines in other metros ranged from -1.1 percentage points to -0.1 percentage points. The metros that posted annual serious delinquency increases were Punta Gorda, Florida (up by 0.2 percentage points) and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida and Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana (both up by 0.1 percentage points).

The next CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report will be released on December 28, 2023, featuring data for October 2023. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Intelligence Blog: www.corelogic.com/intelligence.

Methodology

The data in The CoreLogic LPI report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through September 2023. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. CoreLogic has approximately 75% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

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