Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. The Fed kept their MBS buying relatively constant. The data was mixed. Existing home sales were 3.91M vs the expected 3.98M. New home sales were 676K vs 640K. The NAHB Housing Price Index rose 0.2% vs the expected 0.1% increase. Jobless claims were 1.48M vs 1.3M. Durable goods rose 15.8% vs 13%. Q1 GDP fell 5% as expected. Income fell 4.2% vs the expected 6% decline. Spending rose 8.2% vs the expected 7% increase. Core PCE Inflation rose 0.1%. Analysts expected that figure to remain unchanged. Consumer sentiment was 78.1 vs 78.8. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.


Economic IndicatorRelease Date & TimeConsensus EstimateAnalysis
Consumer ConfidenceTuesday, June 30,
10:00 am, et
90Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP EmploymentWednesday, July 1,
8:30 am, et
3.5MImportant. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
ISM IndexWednesday, July 1,
10:00 am, et
47.6Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction SpendingWednesday, July 1,
10:00 am, et
Down 0.8%Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless ClaimsThursday, July 2,
8:30 am, et
1.3MImportant. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Trade DataThursday, July 2,
8:30 am, et
$47B deficitImportant. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
EmploymentThursday, July 2,
8:30 am, et
Payrolls 3M
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Factory OrdersThursday, July 2,
10:00 am, et
Up 6.6%Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Market HolidayFriday, July 3Important. Bond market closes early Thursday July 2 and is closed the entire day Friday.

Factory orders data is a monthly report released by the US Census Bureau. The release is officially referred to as The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders.

The manufacturing sector is a major component of the economy. Investors use the factory orders report to attempt to determine the direction of the economy in the future. Orders are generally believed to be a precursor to activity in the manufacturing sector because manufacturing typically has an order before considering an increase in production. Conversely, a decrease in orders eventually causes production to scale back; otherwise, the manufacturer accumulates inventories, which must be financed.

Total factory orders break down to approximately 55% durable and 45% non-durable. Durable goods are items such as refrigerators, cars, and aircraft. Non-durables are items such as cigarettes, candy, and soap. The report is often dismissed due to the timing of the release. Durable goods orders are typically reported a week earlier making a portion of the factory orders data “old news.” While some analysts dismiss the value of the factory orders data others point out the fact that the report provides a more complete picture than the initial durable goods release. Revisions to initial data along with non-durable figures are factored in providing a more accurate look at the condition of the manufacturing sector.