— Analysis reveals 12-month national forecast is within 2.3% of actual HPI increase —
CoreLogic a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its latest CoreLogic® HPI Forecast Validation Report that compares its 12-month CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecasts™ to the actual CoreLogic HPI™. The report compares the changes in national and key metro-level forecasts made in November 2018 to the actual CoreLogic HPI, which includes data through November 2019.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state. Published every six months, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report is designed to provide transparency into CoreLogic forecasting abilities.
The most recent report shows:
- Fourteen large metros had forecasts with less than a 1% difference from actual values, including the Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas metro coming within 0.2%. The top 10 major metros all had forecasts within 0.59% of actual values.
- The national forecast prediction of a 5.8% increase was within 2.3% of the 3.5% increase for the HPI ending in November 2019.
- Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin was our most accurately forecasted metro, with the forecast coming within 0.04% of actual values. The Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metro area in Minnesota was second-most accurately forecasted at a 0.09% variance.
- The widest metro gap was in the San Francisco metro area, with an 11% over-estimation of actual increase. CoreLogic noted that the variance in this under-valued metro was mainly due to a concern over the countervailing forces of long-term affordability and supply challenges on home prices.
- Severe inventory shortages and affordability issues also impacted the forecast of the San Jose, California metro area, reflecting the overall market volatility in the region over the past 12 months.
“The latest CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report continues to demonstrate the ability of CoreLogic to accurately deliver high-quality forecasts at the metro level,” said Ann Regan, executive, product management for CoreLogic. “While our national forecast results reflect the difficulties of forecasting in a volatile market, our forecasts were still able to provide accurate, region-specific forecasts for major metro areas, showcasing once again why we are the gold standard in forecasting in the market.”
Top 10 Most Accurately Forecasted Metros
Listed in order of accuracy
|Ranking||Market||Population||HPI Actual Change||Forecasted Change||Difference|
|1||Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI|| 1,576,000||5.1%||5.2%||0.1%|
|2||Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI||3,629,000||4.6%||4.7%||0.1%|
|7||San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX||1,530,000||3.6%||3.2%||-0.4%|
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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