Thanksgiving is over. That means we are in the home stretch of the year. From a business perspective, many within the real estate industry will be happy for this year to end. There is no guarantee that next year will be better, but most analysts are pointing towards a gradual improvement in the real estate market next year spurred on by moderately lower interest rates. Certainly, lower rates would be most welcome.

What makes us think rates will be lower next year? Without going through ten or so technical explanations, we will cite the untechnical “law of averages.” Rates have been rising for just about two years now and we are due for a turnaround. This does not mean that interest rates are due to fall sharply, but at this level, there is greater chance of a decline than there is an increase. Of course, there are x-factors we must consider. Some of these are known, for example there are two wars being fought overseas. These wars could expand, or they hopefully will end.

Other known factors are the periodic threats of a government shutdown and a Presidential election year. Unknown factors? Will inflation ease and will the job market slow down? The jobs report for November will be released next week. And the following week we will have the last meeting of the Fed Reserve Open Market Committee for the year. That is always fun. Then there are factors we don’t even know about because they have not happened. After all—who predicted the pandemic three-plus years ago? And who would have thought the pandemic would ignite a hot real estate market? Our advice? Enjoy the rest of the year and especially the holidays. And be prepared for anything.

Dave Hershman is the top author in the mortgage industry. Dave has published seven books, as well as hundreds of articles and is the founder of the OriginationPro Marketing System and Mortgage School. Want to send this commentary and other news in a personalized format to your sphere database or on social media?  Sign up for a free trial at