After watching the for-sale housing market largely shrug off the potential impacts of the coronavirus pandemic this summer, a panel of experts is singing a much more bullish tune about short-term home price performance than in the spring. But a few clouds appear when looking further out. Skepticism remains in the long term with elevated unemployment expected to persist into the next decade.
The Zillow® Home Price Expectations Surveyi, sponsored by Zillow and conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC, asks more than 100 economists, investment strategists and real estate experts for their predictions about the U.S. housing market. The Q3 survey focused on the short- and long-term outlook for home prices, as well as expectations for U.S. unemployment.
Just three months ago, when the housing market was in the midst of what turned out to be only a brief lull in activity, the panelists expected a slight (0.3%) decline in home prices for 2020. That dip has failed to materialize thus far as historically low inventory and heavy buyer demand have pushed up prices, and panelists have adjusted expectations accordingly.
Panelists are now more optimistic than they were even before the pandemic, forecasting a 3.7% increase in home prices this year compared to an average expectation for a 3.3% increase in the first quarterly survey of 2020. Expectations for home prices in 2021 were also raised, up to 2.7% average forecasted growth from 0.9% last quarter, marking the most optimistic the panel’s outlook for 2021 has been since Q1 2018.
“In many ways, the pandemic has helped supercharge a pre-existing housing supply shortage that has struggled to keep up with strong demand,” said Zillow economist Treh Manhertz. “Many of those fortunate enough to have kept their jobs are looking to take advantage of low mortgage rates by jumping into the market, and they’re finding competition to be fierce with inventory as limited as ever. The longer-term path for prices will depend largely on the course of inventory, including whether homeowner finances are stable enough to avoid a wave of distressed sales when forbearance terms expire and at what level builders, who are reporting sky-high confidence, can bring homes to market.”
The panel is now nearly unanimous in their view that home prices will rise this calendar year, with only two of 104 respondents indicating expectations for a nationwide price fall. In the previous (Q2 2020) survey, 48 of 106 respondents expected a decline.
“In contrast to the debate concerning the contours and sustainability of the U.S economic recovery, these survey data reveal a definitive and remarkably sharp V-shape in U.S. home price expectations,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics. “In a matter of a few months, the pandemic has turbo-charged what had been relatively limited acceptance of remote work, amplified the value of larger living spaces, and ushered in a new era of monetary accommodation by The Fed. With these fundamental forces stoking demand for homeownership amidst stubborn supply constraints, it’s hard to imagine home price expectations returning to the lows of last quarter any time soon.”
Beyond next year, panelists on average downgraded their home value growth forecasts. Price growth expectations are down from last quarter for 2022 (2.7%, down from 2.9%), 2023 (3%, down from 3.3%) and 2024 (3.3%, down from 3.6%)ii.
Experts with lingering reservations about the sustainability of home value growth are focused on the labor market, where a consensus is forming that employment will take years to recover to pre-pandemic levels. On average, panelists indicated a 44% probability that the U.S. will return to 3.5% unemployment — the level recorded in February — by the end of the decade. Even those who believe it’s likely we will reach that milestone during the 2020s typically think it will take until at least mid-decade to recover — 71% said 2025 or later is the soonest that the record-low rate from February will be revisited.
Annual Home Value Growth Expectation – Q2
Annual Home Value Growth Expectation – Q3
Zillow, the most visited real estate website in the U.S., is building an on-demand real estate experience. Whether selling, buying, renting or financing, customers can turn to Zillow’s businesses to find and get into their next home with speed, certainty and ease.
In addition to for-sale and rental listings, Zillow Offers buys and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans, our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home purchase.
Millions of people visit Zillow Group sites every month to start their home search, and now they can rely on Zillow to help them finish it — with the same confidence, ease and empowerment they’ve come to expect from real estate’s most trusted brand.
Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG).
Pulsenomics LLC (www.pulsenomics.com) is an independent research firm that specializes in data analytics, opinion research, new product and index development for institutional clients in the financial and real estate arenas. Pulsenomics also designs and manages expert surveys and consumer polls to identify trends and expectations that are relevant to effective business management and monitoring economic health. Pulsenomics LLC is the author of The Home Price Expectations Survey™, The U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, The Housing Confidence Index, and The Transaction Sentiment Index. Pulsenomics® , The Housing Confidence Index™, The Transaction Sentiment Index™, and The Housing Confidence Survey™ are trademarks of Pulsenomics LLC.
i This edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey surveyed 104 experts between August 17, 2020 and September 1, 2020. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey and any related materials are available through Zillow and Pulsenomics.
ii Figures cited are panel-wide averages.