S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Show Composite Rate Unchanged In March 2019

S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian released today data through March 2019 for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. The indices represent a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults and show that the composite rate was unchanged from last month at 0.92%. The bank card default rate rose 20 basis points to 3.68%. The auto loan default rate dropped five basis points to 0.94%. The first mortgage default rate was unchanged at 0.70%.

Four of the major MSAs showed higher default rates compared to last month. Los Angeles showed the largest increase, up 19 basis points to 0.70%. The default rate for Dallas rose four basis points to 0.94%, while the rate for Chicagoincreased three basis points to 0.95%. New York showed a default rate of 1.06%, up one basis point from last month. Miami was the only city with a decrease, down 49 basis points to 1.58%.

March 2019 was the fourth consecutive month where bank card default rates increased, though the rate still remains lower than it was one year ago. Auto loans defaults have been flat or decreasing since December 2018, resulting in composite levels which have been little changed in first three months of 2019.

“The economy and consumer spending are experiencing moderate growth with few significant consumer credit risks,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Sales of existing and new homes slowed in 2018 and mortgage rates pulled back slightly; mortgage defaults should continue at their currently low levels. Earlier concerns about auto loan defaults are behind us as seen in stable to lower default rates. Most analysts, as well as the Federal Reserve, expect economic growth to continue at about 2%, somewhat slower than 2018 with minimal chance of a recession this year.

“The movements of bank card credit defaults since 2015 exhibit a weak seasonal pattern: default rates tend to peak in the second quarter and then decline slightly with a trough in the second half of the year. There is also a modest uptrend in default rates since late 2015. In the 2015 fourth quarter, bank card defaults were 2.72% rising to 3.33% in the 2017 fourth quarter. Last year’s fourth quarter dipped to 3.17% before the rise resumed with 3.53% in the first quarter this year. While this pattern is becoming clear, there is not enough data yet to confirm the seasonal pattern statistically.”

The table below summarizes the March 2019 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not subject to revision.

The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices for the five MSAs.

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.

ABOUT THE S&P/EXPERIAN CONSUMER CREDIT DEFAULT INDICES

Jointly developed by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and Experian, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published on the third Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien. The Indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month. Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies, and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.

For more information, please visit: https://www.spindices.com/indices/indicators/sp-experian-consumer-credit-default-composite-index.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500^® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average^®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has been innovating and developing across the spectrum of asset classes helping to define the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spdji.com.

ABOUT EXPERIAN

Experian is the world’s leading global information services company. During life’s big moments – from buying a home or a car, to sending a child to college, to growing a business by connecting with new customers – we empower consumers and our clients to manage their data with confidence. We help individuals to take financial control and access financial services, businesses to make smarter decisions and thrive, lenders to lend more responsibly, and organizations to prevent identity fraud and crime.

We have more than 16,000 people operating across 37 countries and every day we’re investing in new technologies, talented people and innovation to help all our clients maximize every opportunity. We are listed on the London Stock Exchange (EXPN) and are a constituent of the FTSE 100 Index.

Learn more at www.experianplc.com or visit our global content hub at our global news blog for the latest news and insights from the Group

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

David Blitzer
Managing Director and Chairman of Index Committee
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 3907
david.blitzer@spglobal.com

Ray Mcconville
North America Communications 
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 1678
raymond.mcconville@spglobal.com

Jordan Takeyama
Experian Public Relations
(+1) 714 830 7561
jordan.takeyama@experian.com

SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian