Redfin Report: Home Prices Up 3% in July as Supply Fell 3%–the Largest Decline in a Year

Home sales down for second month in a row despite low mortgage rates

U.S. home-sale prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in July, growing 3.3 percent year over year to a median of $318,100, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Home sales fell for the second month in a row, by 3.4 percent year over year. The number of homes for sale fell 3.4 percent annually at the end of July, the first decline in a year.

“July home prices and sales were weaker than I had expected, especially given that falling mortgage rates have been luring homebuyers back to the market since early spring,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Even though we’ve seen increased interest from homebuyers—especially compared to a year ago when mortgage rates were climbing—uncertainties in the overall economy and talk of a looming recession have people feeling jittery about making a huge purchase and investment. But I think the odds are that we won’t see a recession within the next year. If rates stay low and the economy continues to grow, we’ll see more homebuyers come back in a serious way in 2020, and the market will be much more competitive.”

Just seven of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks saw a year-over-year decline in their median sale price, the biggest of which was in Bridgeport, CT, where home prices were down 6.2 percent from a year earlier. San Jose (-3.3%), New York(-3.1%), Oakland, CA (-2.6%), Seattle, WA (-1.7%), New Haven, CT (-0.9%) and San Diego (-0.2%) rounded out the list of metro areas with price drops.

A majority of the metro areas tracked by Redfin saw declining home sales compared to July a year ago. The metro areas with the largest declines in sales were Miami, FL (-22.9%), Detroit, MI (-18.9%) and New York, NY (-13.9%).

Twenty-eight of the 85 metros tracked by Redfin saw an increase in the number of homes for sale compared to a year earlier. The three metro areas with the biggest increases in the number of homes for sale were spread all across the country and all have home prices well above the national median: Oxnard, CA (+22.4%), Boston, MA (+18.1%) and Honolulu, HI (+17.4%). The biggest declines in the number of homes for sale were in New Orleans, LA (-28.3%), Rochester, NY (-27.9%) and Tulsa, OK (-22.5%), all metros with home prices significantly below the national median price.

Measures of competition in the national housing market indicated a moderate cooling trend in July. The speed at which homes went off the market slowed slightly, to a median 38 days, up from 36 a year earlier. The share of homes sold above list price was 23.9 percent in July, down from 27.1 percent a year earlier.

Additionally, 28.1 percent of homes listed for sale had a price drop in July, up from 26.3 percent in July 2018. This is the second-highest rate of price drops on record, only surpassed by the 29.6 percent rate last October.

To read the full report, including charts and additional metro-level highlights, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/housing-market-news-july-2019.

About Redfin 
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.