What is the importance of October 4th? Well for one thing, I was born on October 4th in 1952 — and I will let you do the math. As I go past this personal milestone, I realize that I have been writing this economic commentary for over half of these years. And all the while, it seems like history continues to repeat itself. On the other hand, every year is completely different.
We have delivered this commentary through times of high interest rates – much higher than today, the sub-prime crisis, the Great Recession, the pandemic and more. Presidents have come and gone. Unemployment has been sky high, and it has been very low. We have had several refinance booms and mortgage slumps. And through all of this, every year we ask the same question – what will the next phase look like?
As usual, I don’t have the answer. But I will say this – people will still need homes. And they will purchase homes. And 30 years from now, those homes will be more expensive than today. Beyond that, I still won’t be able to predict the future with any certainty. Oh yes – there will still be taxes, but I don’t know how much mortgage interest you will be able to deduct. Finally, I doubt that I will be writing this commentary 30 years from now. But ten years would be nice—I hope you have enjoyed it…Dave Hershman
P.S. Don’t forget the jobs report this week!