Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week considerably higher which put some downward pressure on rates. Most of the improvements occurred the beginning of the week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. There was flight to safety buying of US debt instruments as a result. Inflation fears remained which resulted in some selling pressure mid-week. Producer prices rose 0.5% vs 0.3%. The core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% vs 0.2%. Consumer prices rose 0.4% vs 0.3%. The core rose 0.3% as expected. Weekly jobless claims were 209K vs 210K. Consumer sentiment was 63 vs 67.5. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 7/8 of a discount point.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| Retail Sales | Tuesday, Oct. 17, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.3% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Industrial Production | Tuesday, Oct. 17, 9:15 am, et | Down 0.1% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Capacity Utilization | Tuesday, Oct. 17, 9:15 am, et | 79.6% | Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| NAHB Housing Index | Tuesday, Oct. 17, 10:00 am, et | 45 | Moderately Important. A measure of single-family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Housing Starts | Wednesday, Oct. 18, 8:30 am, et | Up 2.0% | Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Fed “Beige Book” | Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2:00 pm, et | None | Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, Oct. 19, 8:30 am, et | 220K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | Thursday, Oct. 19, 10:00 am, et | 5.4 | Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Leading Economic Indicators | Thursday, Oct. 19, 10:00 am, et | Down 0.4% | Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
NAHB
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) releases the Housing Market Index each month which provides an indication of single-family housing market conditions. The results are derived from a survey of NAHB members in which members are asked to rate current market conditions, future market conditions, and prospective buyer traffic. The data is compiled and then a final number between 0 and 100 is released. A reading over 50 is generally considered positive. The data often correlates with the housing starts data. A healthy housing market is significant for a solid economy. High rates and supply issues have impacted the housing market significantly.
Be alert heading into the economic data this week. A cautious approach to float/lock decisions is prudent in these uncertain times.