There are so many questions at the beginning of every year. For one, how long will it take for us to stop writing or typing 2022? Secondly, from that famous Seinfeld episode—for how long will we wish everyone a Happy New Year? Do we stop January 31st or later? Here is another – how long will it be until we can stop worrying about COVID? Believe it or not, the pandemic started just about three years ago. In early 2020, who thought we would still be dealing with COVID in 2023?

On the economic side, will there be a recession in 2023? All year we have been hearing predictions regarding a coming recession caused by higher interest rates. Yet, the economy has not been showing signs of a recession other than the slowdown in the real estate sector. Generally, the economy follows real estate. Therefore, if the real estate market bounces back this spring, we are less likely to see a recession. On the other hand, if rates stay stubbornly high and real estate sales continue to lag, that increases the risk of a recession significantly.

This week we will see the jobs report for December. Thus far, the job creation machine has hummed throughout 2022. Next week the December inflation numbers will be reported. A bit of a slowdown in job creation, wage inflation, and the overall inflation picture, would do a lot to bring us some better interest rate news. And lower long-term interest rates would be a big factor in bringing back buyers and sellers to the real estate market.

Dave Hershman is the top author in the mortgage industry. Dave has published seven books, as well as hundreds of articles and is the founder of the OriginationPro Marketing System and Mortgage School. Want to send this commentary and other news in a personalized format to your sphere database or on social media?  Sign up for a free trial at