Many economists are predicting somewhat of a mild recession in 2020. However, their predictions are not unanimous and those who believe the economy will continue to grow are pointing to the real estate sector having the potential to keep us out of a recession. Certainly, we can see the economy has slowed when you consider that the last six months the economy has grown by around 2.0%. It is quite apparent that the positive effects of the tax overhaul were temporary, at least in this regard.

The last recession was led by a contracting real estate market. Thus, it would be quite a turnaround if real estate bolstered this economy just enough to keep us out of the next recession. Yes, the economy is slower, but that does not necessarily mean that it will slip into negative territory. The weaker economy is the factor which has caused interest rates to fall more than expected. And those lower rates are the biggest factor bolstering real estate.

Real estate has also been given a boost by increased household formulation. The Census Bureau recently reported that nearly 1.5 million households were formed in the past year. That formulation is increasing demand for housing nationwide. And lower rates have made owning more affordable. That is a good combination, and if it holds, a factor which might boost the economy by just enough.


Dave Hershman is the top author in the mortgage industry. Dave has published seven books, as well as hundreds of articles and is the founder of the OriginationPro Marketing System and Mortgage School. Want to send this commentary and other news in a personalized format to your sphere database or on social media?  Sign up for a free trial at