We always say that predicting the future is futile. This year is no exception. The analysts were expecting a recession sometime this year. It did not happen. They also expected interest rates to start easing down as the year went on. Instead, as the second half of the year began, interest rates started rising again. By mid-August mortgage rates hit their highest point since November of last year. So much for paying economists big money to give us a glimpse of the future. You might have to go to the weatherman to get predictions this far off.
Speaking of the weather, there is no doubt that climate change is one of the main factors contributing to the inflation we are experiencing. This is especially true in the real estate sector where insurance rates are rising, especially in certain states. Hurricane Idalia is just the latest event to cause damage costing billions of dollars. And the hurricane season has started to heat up. Thus far, people are still flocking to areas subject to storms and wildfires, but evidence is starting to roll in that the risk of climate change is starting to factor into the decision of where to purchase a home.
Going back to the issue of interest rates, most economists are still expecting lower rates on the horizon. Though the horizon has been moved out somewhat. It will be interesting to see if the present increase in rates is reversed this fall or this will be the new normal until rates start falling. We will make this somewhat “safe” prediction about the future. The longer rates stay elevated in the Fed’s quest to calm inflation, the greater number of homeowners who will be refinancing in the future. Which is why so many are using this quote recently – Marry the house, but date the rate!
Dave Hershman is the top author in the mortgage industry. Dave has published seven books, as well as hundreds of articles and is the founder of the OriginationPro Marketing System and Mortgage School. Want to send this commentary and other news in a personalized format to your sphere database or on social media? Sign up for a free trial at www.OriginationPro.com.