Another Seinfeld question — When in the year do we stop wishing people “Happy New Year”? In this case we will stretch it out for one more week as we take a look at what happened in 2019. With regard to data, we close the year out on jobs this week with the employment report for December. Though we will have a couple of revisions of this report in the coming months.

This report will be looked at very closely as the most important data release thus far this year. The question is–are we continuing to gain momentum going into the new year, or is the economic slowdown continuing? As we look back, mid-2019, there were a bevy of economists predicting a recession this year. But lower rates and easing trade tensions took the focus off of recession as the year progressed.

Consumer spending and real estate continued to prop up the economy even as other sectors of the economy languished. Nothing spurs consumers more than good paying jobs. Thus, the employment numbers could tell a very important story. If the report is too strong, we could see the end of the trend of lower rates, as rates have already begun to come off their lows. A weak report could keep rates near these very attractive levels. The end of this week should be interesting.


Dave Hershman is the top author in the mortgage industry. Dave has published seven books, as well as hundreds of articles and is the founder of the OriginationPro Marketing System and Mortgage School. Want to send this commentary and other news in a personalized format to your sphere database or on social media?  Sign up for a free trial at