No, it is not as if the government is going to stop giving us readings on employment on a monthly basis. However, this is the last reading on jobs growth we will see for the year. Every month the jobs report has been closely watched, but November’s jobs data will be very important. For one thing, the number of jobs we are adding on a monthly basis has been slowing down, and this has contributed to slower economic growth this year.
For the period of 2011 through 2018, the economy was consistently adding close to an average of 200,000 jobs per month. This has been an amazing number and has erased the millions of jobs we lost during the recession. In 2019, we have continued to add jobs, but at a slower pace–closer to 150,000 jobs per month. While this number is still strong, it is likely to be the lowest number of jobs added since 2010, the year we came out of the recession. So why is November’s report so important?
Many are predicting economic growth to slow even further during the fourth quarter and a disappointing number of jobs added would solidify these projections. Consumer spending has been supporting the economy all year and recent retail sales stats have indicated that the consumer may be pulling back, not a good sign going into the holiday season. On the other hand, a strong jobs report could give consumer spending a shot in the arm when the economy needs it the most. The end of the GM strike also has the potential to skew the numbers on the positive side. Thus, this week’s jobs report will be watched very closely.
Dave Hershman is the top author in the mortgage industry. Dave has published seven books, as well as hundreds of articles and is the founder of the OriginationPro Marketing System and Mortgage School. Want to send this commentary and other news in a personalized format to your sphere database or on social media? Sign up for a free trial at www.OriginationPro.com.