Delinquency rates remain elevated in some regions impacted by natural disasters
January U.S. serious delinquency rate was the lowest for the month in 18 years
No state logged an annual gain in its serious delinquency or foreclosure rate in January
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report. The report shows, nationally, 4 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) in January 2019, representing a 0.9 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with January 2018, when it was 4.9 percent. This was the lowest for the month of January in at least 20 years.
As of January 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate – which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from January 2018. The January 2019 foreclosure inventory rate tied the November and December 2018 rates as the lowest for any month during the 2000s.
Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency, as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.9 percent in January 2019, down from 2 percent in January 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due in January 2019 was 0.7 percent, down from 0.8 percent in January 2018. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.4 percent in January 2019, down from 2.1 percent in January 2018. The serious delinquency rate of 1.4 percent this January was the lowest for that month since 2001 when it was also 1.4 percent and was the lowest for any month since September 2006 when it was also 1.4 percent.
Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 0.8 percent in January 2019, unchanged from January 2018. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2 percent, while it peaked in November 2008 at 2 percent.
“Income growth, home appreciation and sound underwriting combined have pushed delinquency rates to their lowest level in 20 years,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The low delinquency rates on home mortgages are a contrast to the rising delinquency rates on consumer credit. While home mortgage delinquency rates are at, or are near, their lowest levels in two decades, delinquency rates for auto and student loans are higher now than they were during the early and mid-2000s.”
The nation’s overall delinquency rate has fallen on a year-over-year basis for the past 13 consecutive months. Fewer delinquencies attribute to the strength of loan vintages in the years since the residential lending market has recovered following the housing crisis. In January, 13 metropolitan areas experienced annual gains – mostly very small – in their serious delinquency rates. The largest gains were in five Southeast metros affected by natural disasters in 2018.
“As the economic expansion continues to create jobs and low mortgage rates support home buying this spring, delinquency rates are likely to trend lower during the coming year,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The decline in delinquency rates has occurred in nearly all parts of the nation.”
The next CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report will be released on May 14, 2019, featuring data for February 2019.
For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/insights.
The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through January 2019.
The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.
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