Survey-High 81% of Consumers Believe Economy Is on the ‘Wrong Track’
The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 3.4 points in June to 64.8, its second-lowest reading in a decade. Surveyed consumers continue to express pessimism about homebuying conditions, with only 20% of respondents reporting it’s a good time to buy a home, while the percentage of consumers who believe it’s a “Good Time to Sell” fell from 76% to 68% this month. Overall, four of the index’s six components decreased month over month, including the components associated with perceived job stability and household income. Notably, a survey-high 81% of consumers believe the economy is on the “wrong track” and, for the first time in nearly seven years, a plurality of respondents said it would be difficult to get a mortgage, potentially a function of elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates. Year over year, the full index is down 14.9 points.
“In June, a survey-record 81% of consumers reported that the economy is on the wrong track, suggesting to us – and corroborated by other recently released consumer confidence measures – that people appear to be growing increasingly frustrated with inflation and the slowing economy,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Moreover, 21% of respondents expressed job stability concerns, the highest percentage in 18 months. This month’s HPSI reading reflects these macroeconomic and personal financial concerns, with housing sentiment additionally diminished by the recent rapid increases in mortgage rates.”
Duncan continued: “Interestingly, consumers’ perceptions of home-selling conditions declined meaningfully in June, returning to pre-pandemic levels. This was particularly true for homeowner respondents. At the same time, consumers, especially those in prime homebuying groups, appear to be feeling the affordability pinch of higher mortgage rates: Approximately half of all respondents indicated that it would be ‘difficult’ to get a mortgage, the highest such percentage since 2014. As a whole, this month’s HPSI results are consistent with our forecast of a slowing housing market through the rest of this year and next.”
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in June by 3.4 points to 64.8. The HPSI is down 14.9 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased from 17% to 20%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from 79% to 75%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 7 percentage points month over month.
- Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 76% to 68%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 19% to 26%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 15 percentage points month over month.
- Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 47% to 44%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 23% to 27%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 25% to 23%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up decreased 7 percentage points month over month.
- Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 4% to 5%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 70% to 67%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 20% to 21%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 4 percentage points month over month.
- Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 81% to 78%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 16% to 21%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 8 percentage points month over month.
- Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 26% to 25%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower remained unchanged at 16%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 54% to 58%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 1 percentage point month over month.
About Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey
The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) polled approximately 1,000 respondents via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). For more information, please see the Technical Notes. Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The June 2022 National Housing Survey was conducted between June 2, 2022 and June 21, 2022. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by PSB, in coordination with Fannie Mae.
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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