Home prices begin to show a seasonal slowdown; what’s ahead for housing depends on the impact of COVID-19

Buyers and sellers quickly jumped back into the market this week after taking a break during election week, according to realtor.com’s Weekly Housing Report for the week ending Nov 14. Despite the resumed interest, home prices are finally showing signs of a seasonal slowdown gaining only 12.6% this week compared to 12.9% the previous week.

“We typically see fewer buyers and sellers in the market toward the end of the year, as families are busy with children in school and holiday celebrations. Although we still have a fast-moving housing market relative to this time last year, we’re starting to see some slowing from the late-summer/fall and movement towards more normal seasonality. What happens next depends on this resurgence of COVID-19. In the spring, we saw that the more coronavirus cases a market had, the less likely sellers were to put their homes on the market. If we are able to contain the spread, sales activity will likely slow somewhat in line with normal seasonality, but otherwise we may see a more abrupt slowdown. ”

Home prices remain near summer highs but are finally showing signs of a slowdown

  • Median listing prices grew at 12.6% over last year, marking the 14th consecutive week of double-digit price growth. The fact that median listing price growth declined slightly this week suggests that the median asking price is finally moving down from its summer peak of $350,000.

Sellers resumed listing homes as they were before the election

  • New listings were down 7%, an improvement from last week’s 12% decline. With fewer home purchases in seasonally slower months, week to week fluctuations in the data can be magnified. The past few weeks suggest that the trend in newly listed homes has worsened slightly from mid-October. Looking forward, there could be a small step back in home sales activity in the months ahead. Earlier in the year, we found that new listings growth was tied closely to coronavirus spread. If that underlying relationship remains, rising coronavirus cases could be a challenge for the housing market in the weeks ahead.

Lack of homes for sale is keeping us in a seller’s market

  • Five straight weeks at 38 percent yearly declines in the total number of homes on the market suggests that improvements in the trend of new sellers and buyers have not shifted our current sellers market.
  • With limited homes available for sale, those that are on the market continue to sell faster than last year, by roughly 2 weeks. For 8 weeks now, we’ve seen homes sell 13 or 14 days faster than last year. As we discussed last week, we typically see a big increase in time on market before the end of November. Thus, steady decreases in days on market could indicate that we are finally seeing a bit of a seasonal slowdown.

Housing market remains strong as buyer and seller activity bounce back

  • Realtor.com® tracks the overall strength of the housing market through its proprietary Housing Market Recovery Index, which compares real-time key indicators including trends in number of searches on realtor.com®, median listing prices, the number of newly listed homes, and the time it takes to sell to January 2020, prior to the pandemic.
  • The realtor.com Housing Market Recovery Index increased to 110.7 nationwide for the week ending Nov. 14, 10.7 points above the pre-COVID baseline and an increase of 2.7 points over the prior week. After seeing growth in demand and supply lose momentum earlier in the month, the pace seems to be back on track but still following the seasonal slowdown.

Metro

Median
Listing
Price YoY

Total
Listings
YoY

Median Days
on Market
YoY

Akron, Ohio

9.9%

-51.9%

12 days faster

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.

13.8%

-37.8%

15 days faster

Albuquerque, N.M.

14.9%

-46.3%

14 days faster

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.

14.1%

-50.6%

21 days faster

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.

8.2%

-46.1%

10 days faster

Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.

7.7%

-51.0%

29 days faster

Austin-Round Rock, Texas

19.2%

-51.3%

13 days faster

Bakersfield, Calif.

17.6%

-46.7%

18 days faster

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.

1.6%

-52.8%

13 days faster

Baton Rouge, La.

13.7%

-39.7%

10 days faster

Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.

0.5%

-34.6%

18 days faster

Boise City, Idaho

21.9%

-72.3%

13 days faster

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

12.8%

-25.6%

14 days faster

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.

0.0%

-26.7%

36 days faster

Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.

10.6%

-47.1%

10 days slower

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.

9.4%

-42.1%

7 days faster

Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.

14.5%

-44.9%

25 days faster

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.

10.4%

-48.1%

14 days faster

Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.

8.7%

-50.6%

11 days faster

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.

9.1%

-31.8%

8 days faster

Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.

15.3%

-42.7%

11 days faster

Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio

6.5%

-47.0%

16 days faster

Colorado Springs, Colo.

9.0%

-56.4%

16 days faster

Columbia, S.C.

9.3%

-49.4%

17 days faster

Columbus, Ohio

12.7%

-47.6%

12 days faster

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

5.9%

-48.5%

10 days faster

Dayton, Ohio

11.8%

-44.3%

14 days faster

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.

6.4%

-43.7%

12 days faster

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.

4.4%

-45.5%

8 days faster

Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa

4.3%

-31.3%

11 days faster

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich

9.6%

-47.2%

8 days faster

Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.

14.0%

-45.3%

16 days faster

El Paso, Texas

19.1%

-48.7%

5 days faster

Fresno, Calif.

9.2%

-57.9%

13 days faster

Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich

7.1%

-47.8%

5 days faster

Greensboro-High Point, N.C.

-1.9%

-50.8%

17 days faster

Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.

3.4%

-40.5%

10 days faster

Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.

15.2%

-57.9%

7 days faster

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.

8.7%

-29.8%

22 days faster

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas

9.8%

-32.5%

13 days faster

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.

3.5%

-44.9%

14 days faster

Jackson, Miss.

16.1%

-49.1%

21 days faster

Jacksonville, Fla.

1.0%

-46.8%

12 days faster

Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.

10.0%

-46.6%

14 days faster

Knoxville, Tenn.

10.5%

-50.3%

22 days faster

Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.

7.6%

-27.5%

11 days faster

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.

7.6%

-17.9%

10 days faster

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.

19.4%

-60.9%

16 days faster

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.

16.3%

-18.0%

12 days faster

Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.

0.0%

-47.5%

16 days faster

Madison, Wis.

4.3%

-43.8%

17 days faster

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas

15.4%

-41.1%

25 days faster

Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.

12.8%

-51.4%

12 days faster

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.

0.2%

-18.0%

1 day slower

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.

3.6%

-39.9%

11 days faster

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.

0.9%

-30.3%

8 days faster

Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.

7.6%

-46.8%

9 days faster

New Haven-Milford, Conn.

11.2%

-24.7%

25 days faster

New Orleans-Metairie, La.

15.8%

-38.3%

7 days faster

New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.

11.2%

-4.6%

5 days slower

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.

1.6%

-40.5%

13 days faster

Oklahoma City, Okla.

6.0%

-41.7%

5 days faster

Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa

5.5%

-45.4%

1 day slower

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.

1.6%

-21.6%

No change

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.

7.9%

-47.6%

9 days faster

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.

3.4%

-40.9%

8 days faster

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.

15.3%

-40.3%

13 days faster

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.

10.5%

-42.5%

8 days faster

Pittsburgh, Pa.

24.1%

-39.5%

11 days faster

Portland-South Portland, Maine

10.7%

-45.1%

30 days faster

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

11.6%

-42.9%

10 days faster

Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.

6.4%

-50.7%

14 days faster

Raleigh, N.C.

6.3%

-48.1%

18 days faster

Richmond, Va.

12.9%

-47.9%

7 days faster

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.

15.9%

-53.9%

14 days faster

Rochester, N.Y.

15.0%

-41.3%

13 days faster

Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.

15.2%

-46.3%

18 days faster

Salt Lake City, Utah

17.3%

-52.7%

13 days faster

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

4.5%

-40.7%

12 days faster

San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.

9.9%

-21.8%

2 days slower

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.

10.2%

9.1%

3 days faster

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.

10.4%

-1.5%

14 days faster

Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa.

15.6%

-50.8%

36 days faster

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.

8.6%

-36.7%

7 days faster

Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.

7.1%

-50.8%

8 days faster

Springfield, Mass.

14.6%

-43.5%

18 days faster

St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.

9.1%

-38.9%

14 days faster

Stockton-Lodi, Calif.

5.4%

-64.4%

8 days faster

Syracuse, N.Y.

9.8%

-43.7%

7 days faster

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.

7.3%

-42.8%

13 days faster

Toledo, Ohio

0.0%

-43.0%

11 days faster

Tucson, Ariz.

10.5%

-45.0%

7 days faster

Tulsa, Okla.

8.0%

-39.5%

9 days faster

Urban Honolulu, Hawaii

-8.1%

27.2%

2 days faster

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.

5.0%

-46.8%

23 days faster

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.

5.2%

-34.2%

10 days faster

Wichita, Kan.

9.8%

-35.4%

15 days faster

Winston-Salem, N.C.

0.4%

-48.2%

19 days faster

Worcester, Mass.-Conn.

9.1%

-51.0%

25 days faster

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.

16.7%

-52.7%

24 days faster

Link to Weekly Stats Blog Post:
https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-nov-14-2020/

Link to Index Commentary Blog Post: https://www.realtor.com/research/housing-market-recovery-index-trends-nov-14-data/

Methodology: The Weekly Housing Index leverages a weighted average of realtor.com® search traffic, median list prices, new listings, and median time on market and compares it to the January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.

About realtor.com®
Realtor.com® makes buying, selling and living in homes easier and more rewarding for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today through its website and mobile apps is a trusted source for the information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Using proprietary data science and machine learning technology, realtor.com® pairs buyers and sellers with local agents in their market, helping take the guesswork out of buying and selling a home. For professionals, realtor.com® is a trusted provider of consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today’s on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.

Media Contacts:
Cody Horvatcody.horvat@move.com

SOURCE realtor.com

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